Everyday Killings in Mexico Fall Over a Third Under Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Figures

The mean number of everyday homicides monthly in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to fresh official statistics. Nevertheless, security specialists have advised that murder figures could fail to indicate enhanced national stability.

Marked Decline in Daily Numbers

There was an mean of close to 55 murders a day in November versus roughly 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This data was shared by the head of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we have seen during these months is very important,” the President remarked, explaining that the previous month the smallest figure of murders were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Fierce cartel rivalries, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to combat the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent times. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than 4x greater than that of the United States. However, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an apparently sharper drop in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “There is a plan, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The main components of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Increased cooperation between various agencies.

Expert Caution and Data Limitations

However, public safety experts cautioned that using murder numbers to assess the situation of peace was problematic. This is notably true in light of the increase in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be positive news if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just look at the homicide data and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer reliable for gauging the situation of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the resources or the inclination to properly recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of everyday killings was similarly problematic because it might obscure days when there were notably elevated levels of killings.

“Relying on the per-day mean renders surges of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the government can point to the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for major crimes, according to official figures. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

However despite these measures, Mexico is still beset by severe violence, with several states in the midst of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of protesters protested in the capital and across the country to express their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The government presents [data] in a manner to construct a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, socially it’s highly questionable,” Vargas concluded.