Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
